Research notes
Methodology and archived research context
This page now tracks the governed WIN/PLACE drift paper-capture programme. Old failed mode experiments are archived; rule-level evidence lives on the Strategy Monitor.
Current research answer
Plain-English answer before the raw evidence tables.
We are no longer treating legacy back tips, steamers, false favourites, or stale MorningWAP artefacts as active strategy candidates. The current work is forward-settling WIN and PLACE drift-lay rules from live Betfair order books.
- Active evidence source: live non-virtual Betfair order-book captures plus Betfair settlement.
- Current sample is encouraging but still small; this remains paper-only.
- Stale/failed strategies are visible only as archived context, not active candidates.
Research pipeline
Every candidate has to move through these gates before it can affect live recommendations.
Historical or exploratory research found a possible edge.
Forward signals are captured without live staking.
Results must survive Betfair/manual price checks.
Sample size, ROI, drawdown and source splits are reviewed.
Only after passing gates; still risk-capped.
What this means
Quick definitions for the terms used on this page.
Forward signals are recorded and settled for evidence, but they are not treated as live betting instructions.
Rows using manual Betfair Exchange or automated Betfair delayed prices. These are more trustworthy than estimates.
A weaker estimate based on proxy or starting-price-style settlement. Proxy-only evidence cannot promote a strategy by itself.
The safety gate checking sample size, ROI, drawdown and source quality before anything can move beyond research.
Live strategy monitor snapshot
Rule-level paper-capture evidence from the current WIN/PLACE drift scanners.
Can anything be promoted yet?
2461 settled · -18.74% ROI · £-1574.29 paper P&L
- Live paper ROI must be positive before considering promotion.
- Live paper max drawdown must stay at or below 50 units.
Is the evidence based on real Exchange prices?
Exchange-priced rows are more trustworthy than proxy/SP rows. Proxy-only evidence cannot promote a strategy by itself.
Cumulative P&L trend
Settled paper evidence only, grouped by race date.
Drawdown trend
Shows peak-to-trough damage in the live paper record.
Need the raw signal log?
The detailed active, settled and watch-only paper rows live on the Paper page, where they can be filtered without cluttering this research summary.
Advanced diagnostics
Is Betfair price capture working?
Open signals are covered by the current price-capture path.
Strategy candidates by evidence source
Profitability must survive per-mode and per-source checks before any promotion.
Exchange matching diagnostics
Open proxy-priced signals and persisted Betfair capture failures. These are candidates for market/runner matching fixes.
Captured/open signal health
Today
Short-term live paper evidence
Last 7 days
Near-term validation window
Last 30 days
Complete persisted paper record
All time
Mode performance
lay drifting morning favourite
Mode performance
lay festival big field favourites
Mode performance
place back jumps handicap bigfield
Mode performance
inverse lay back favourites
Mode performance
lay false favourites
Mode performance
place back midprice jumps smallfield
Mode performance
lay gb high draw top weight favourites
Mode performance
lay trainer cold delta place
Mode performance
lay ire flat hot course favourites
Mode performance
lay bad draw sprint favourites
Mode performance
lay exchange slice candidates
Mode performance
false favourite place alternatives
Mode performance
lay false favourites cycle filtered
Mode performance
lay exchange slice b candidates
Mode performance
false favourite each way alternatives
Mode performance
lay vulnerable favourites
Mode performance